December 2024 Edition

Agriculture & Natural Resources
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NWS Winter Outlook
This information is provided by Derrick Snyder – National Weather Service, Paducah, KY.
La Niña conditions are favored to emerge and persist during the winter months, with a 75% chance of La Niña by November to January. La Niña, which is defined by much cooler ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, will likely affect temperature and precipitation through the winter season. A typical La Nina pattern will bring disturbances through the Ohio Valley more frequently than usual, but whether this means Kentucky will see more snow than usual remains unclear. During the last few winters, the most impactful winter storms have occurred when a sudden, sharp transition from above normal to below normal temperatures is forecast, so that will be one item to pay close attention to during the day-to-day forecast.

The long-range winter outlook slightly favors increased chances for warmer than normal conditions across the Commonwealth. The outlook favors equal chances for above, below, or near normal seasonal precipitation (including all rain, snow, and ice) across much of Kentucky, with the exception of far northern Kentucky, where above normal precipitation is slightly favored. Much of the fall months have been marked by persist drier and warmer than normal conditions across the state, with persistent areas of widespread drought. The winter precipitation outlook suggests some drought improvement is possible through the winter.